(Dutch) ABC Islands invasion by Venezuela

[Saladin]

[reposted from the previous board]

In another possible Venezuela conflict, I've been reseraching and building fleets for a possible invasion of the ABC (Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao) islands by Venezuela. Mixed sea-air, possible land game.

Political Situation:

ABC Islands: Has a massive debt to the Netherlands, thick with corruption. We (me being Dutch) want to put the islands under financial supervision to clear up the mess, though a part of of our population wants to get rid of the islands as the influx of drugs and (criminal) youths from the ABC islands is too much. Strong resistance to this supervision, nationalist ABC politicians claim it to be another colonisation movefrom the Dutch Government. One of the ABC islands has a oil refinery. Several airports, 1 big enough for jets. 1 Frigate and 1 contingent of Dutch Marines are stationed there, as well as several coast guard vessels. American assistance for aerial observation against drugrunners.

Population would be devided if there would be war clouds on the horizon.

Venezuela: Chavez is a socialist with a dictator streak. Decent naval force, 6 frigates, 4 patrolcraft (2 gun/2 missile), several landing craft and fleet supply vessels. Marine Corps with AAV's. Outdated patrol and customs craft. On paper decent airforce, the F-5's are former Dutch planes we sold in the 1980's, the Mirages are about to be taken out of service as they are really old, F-16's are ok-ish but lack of spares isn't helping, the newly aquired Super Flankers are a force to be reckoned with, long range etc. Small helicopter force, and not a lot of runways in the vicinity of the Islands. Military ....I do not know what role they will play, not trained in landings etc. Military backs Chavez (up to a point, there is dissent) airforce would be doubtfull, most if not all pilots trained in the US and know what to expect. Navy is superior in numbers to what the Dutch can get to the Islands in a hurry.

The Netherlands: As mentioned before, 1 frigate and 1 marine contingent. Possibility to ship air defence systems and troops with air or ship with our rapid response units. The airfield should be able to take 1-2 squadrons of F-16's, maybe. We can deploy 2-3 additional frigates plus support craft as well as our big supply and landing craft. Problem is our defence forces are being drained and stretched to breaking point by our policing duties in Afghanistan, which is costing a fortune in resources and money. Also, not sure if the will to go to war would be here. Yes, it is a former colony of us, and we have strong ties to it, but a number of the population want to get rid of "that pirates nest". Also, not sure what we can expect from the US, as those are stretched thin as well due to their policing actions.

Politically it can go either way, militarily the Dutch would be outnumbered, training wise we would be a tough nut to crack, but apart from Yugoslavia, our Airforce and Navy have not had any real combat experience in years. Then again, I'm working on a landing force, air support with F-16's interceptors (can't be outfitted for anti ship missiles, not configured for that, IIRC mavericks and laser guided munitions are not a problem) and possibly our Apaches, 1-2 subs and 4 frigates for the Dutch. Venezuela would have 4-6 frigates, 4 patrol craft, a landing force and support vessels, Flankers with F-5's and F-16's to back them up.

All in all, could be interesting I think.

Johan

[Saladin]

[reposted from the previous board]

I think is an interesting scenario. I have a few thoughts on it.

American intervention would be touchy because of Venezuela. The US has had a pretty strong commitment to the OAS (Organization of American States) that puts it in a difficult spot in picking sides with a European power over an Americas power. An example is the situation we were in when Argentina grabbed the Falklands...although Britain has been one of US's staunchest allies, joining in versus Argentina wasn't in the cards. Besides, making the ABC area a war zone would disrupt oil flow from Venezuela, and that would probably weigh on the decision maker's mind.

If the US did choose to intervene I think it has ample surface & subsurface forces to add to the fight...the US commitment in southwest asia is mainly ground and air...I'm sure we could scrounge up a squadron somewhere.

However, I think you could use the OAS restriction to help balance the scenario. if this was a flashpoint situation, it would take time for NL to reinforce ABC...but the US would probably make its intelligence assets available to the NL as happened with Britain & the Falklands War. So the Venezuelan player would have the superior force, but the NL player would have the superior intelligence...could make for a very interesting game.

Sam

[Gunbird]

Something to add in, most likely the Dutch can use the airfields of Surinam for their F-16's. Every little bit helps.

[Colonel Sam]

Hey, a new update: Russia may be holding a joint naval exercise with Venezuela in the near future, and apparently some Soviet...I mean Russian...bombers have just landed in Caracas as well. It might make an interesting addition to have a couple of Russian bombers available to back up the Venezuelan Navy

[Gunbird]

Yeah, I noticed...and with the American ambassador being kicked out, this makes support from the Americans much more likely. Long term but still very interesting for me at the moment though